You know, Navi was dominated by Mousesports, who turned the game around and eliminated Navi after losing the first map. Referencing the analysis from player @Udknud, let's take a look at Navi's current predicament.
After being eliminated 0-2 at StarLadder, NaVi's probability of making the Major has now dropped to 87%. They need to win 4 matches in EPL and PGL Bucharest to have a slim chance of qualifying. Securing more than 5 wins would lock in their spot.
After losing to MOUZ—Navi will not appear in the next VRS top 20, that is a fact! In fact, projections show Navi will likely be around 25th place in the upcoming October 5th ranking (unless they go to Portugal or Sweden for an open LAN event right now). For a team like NaVi, not being in the top 20 is clearly unprecedented. Of course, in terms of strength, Navi is still a top 20 team, but that's how VRS works: with no wins this season, you'll drop like a stone in the rankings.
The consolation for Navi fans is that, given their current low ranking, if they can win some matches in the upcoming Tier-1 events quickly enough, they will climb back up just as rapidly. However, one could say the writing is on the wall for them now. Navi has three invitations left in Tier-1 events, and they cannot earn any new invitations from the October 5th ranking. Two of these events count towards Major qualification:
- EPL S24
- PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
And for IEM Beijing, their third and current final invitation does not count toward the Major but will certainly affect NAVI's future December and January rankings, which will also distribute Tier-1 event invitations.
Regarding Major qualification: NaVi now needs to secure more than 4 wins in the remaining 2 events before the deadline to barely qualify for the Major in most scenarios, with over 5 wins required to guarantee their spot at 100%. With only 3 wins, their chances of advancing would be very slim. Securing 4-5 or more wins would also likely see them qualify for BLAST Open 2027, which became important after they missed the PGL Bucharest from the October rankings.
To receive an invitation for the 2027 PGL event (also based on the November rankings), one must rank in the top 14 globally in November, which requires Navi to secure over 4-5 wins across two tournaments. As for missing the Major, imagine this scenario: finishing 2-3 in the EPL and 1-3 in PGL Bucharest would lead to exactly that outcome. If you want figures, the projection is that Navi has an 86% chance of qualifying, but a better reference might be that they need 4 or more wins.
It can be determined how likely they are to achieve this goal. Perhaps higher or lower than 86%, a figure based on Navi still being a top-10 team in terms of strength.
“But couldn't they just participate in another offline tournament before the deadline?” you might ask…? Yes, they could, but they've already turned down the Thunderpick WC, making it unlikely they plan to do so.
Thunderpick WC Thunder Cup Participating Teams
And the deadline is approaching, remember their own final event, PGL Bucharest, is right before the deadline, making it impossible for them to book a LAN event as a last-minute effort. They need to make a decision now, and the dilemma is that they are still counting on completing the required goals in two Tier-1 events. It would be nice to know if an additional LAN event is needed at the end, but they won’t have that luxury. By the way, this is the exact same dilemma faced by all teams outside the Tier-1 circle... They need to figure out how many events to play and which ones to choose for the best chance of qualifying, as participating in events could also lead to losing matches and losing points.