The Major is getting closer and closer, and fans are following whether their favorite teams can make it to the Major. The most attention is on Tomato Scrambled Eggs (FaZe/Navi). Although these two veteran powerhouses may have been lacking in strength recently, they are extremely popular, and NaVi has stickers from every Major so far and is the only team with a complete Major attendance record, so people care about them even more. However, Egg is in a slightly better situation than Tomato. Tomato's points have remained low, so they can only grind points by playing in a large number of obscure minor tournaments, while Egg has opportunities to play in big tournaments, but the competition in big tournaments is also tougher.
Player Finn has made the latest simulation for teams qualifying for the Major, and HLTV has also released its own simulation. Combining both simulations, let's look at the probability of each team qualifying for the Major.
Europe:
Finn's simulation added detailed annotations for the controversial teams:
About 1win (Avengers): 1win recently reached the Katowice Elimination Stage. Although they lost, they already achieved a decent result, so they chose to withdraw from CIS LAN Season 9. They are relatively safe, but their chances have decreased.
Regarding PV: The match against NAVI would have been an important win for both teams, and PV won it, which helped PV get over the line. They have very likely already locked in their Major spot (the keyword is 'very likely').
About FaZe: FaZe's odds have barely changed, as they are heavy favorites in all of these LAN matchups. FaZe still needs 4 more LAN wins (possibly up to 5), and if they can secure these wins cleanly, the outlook is very good. The only concern is that if they play terribly at LANs, the opponents FaZe will face are ranked far below them, so a loss would cost them a lot of points and be very hard to recover from. They would go from needing only a few LAN wins to needing high placements to make up for the head-to-head losses. Even if they perform well at RIC, as far as I know, since the roster lock has already passed, they are already set to play DraculaN.
TL;DR: FaZe has entered many niche, hidden-gem tournaments. Strength-wise, they are absolutely a top team, and if they steadily win these tournaments, they will have a huge advantage. However, all the teams they face are ranked much lower than them, so if they lose they will drop a lot of points that will be hard to earn back. FaZe has also signed up for Dracula Cup 7.
About NaVi: NAVI has registered for HyperX (not yet paid). This has both advantages and disadvantages. They will likely have to accept some forfeit losses at some point. Reaching the PGL playoffs will increase the probability of qualifying for the Major, but at the same time forfeits in HyperX will decrease the probability of qualifying for the Major.
TL;DR: NAVI has added a layer of insurance, PGL Bucharest is a must-attend, NAVI is prepared to lose matches, but PGL runs from October 24-31, while HyperX13 runs from October 29 to November 1,
If Navi is quickly eliminated from PGL, they can participate in HyperX, but if Navi participates in HyperX and performs well in PGL, advancing all the way, they will have to forfeit HyperX. Although winning more in PGL can achieve good results, forfeiting HyperX is equivalent to losing to much lower-ranked teams, which will cost a lot of points and also carries considerable risk. It all depends on Navi's decision.
If they rush to win quite a few matches in PGL but run into a schedule conflict and are unable to play in HyperX, forcing them to forfeit, and happen to get matched against the lowest-ranked teams in HyperX and end up dropping points to them, then the points lost could outweigh the points earned, leaving them with nothing to show for it. (HyperX features teams ranked 31-260, and even unranked teams...)
Regarding ENVY (formerly 3DMAX): The author says ENVY's recent performance is a true strong comeback (they won a small event title). If they can successfully qualify, it will be a spectacular comeback story.
(Have you noticed that BCG also entered the niche tournaments that Navi and FaZe entered? BCG has almost locked in Asia Stage 2, s1mple has a chance to play spoiler, punching Tomato and kicking Egg)
The simulated HLTV for the European region is as follows:
HLTV is optimistic about NAVI's performance at PGL, simulating an 87% probability, FaZe 65%, but both are above the qualification line.
There are still quite a few teams vying for LAN qualification. Although these teams are still competing for a LAN spot, they still have a chance, with teams such as Inner, ENVY, GL, 100T, and magic all having roughly a 30-40% probability.
Asia Region:
BCG ranks first in Asia in both simulations, and s1mple will compete with 910 for the title of Asia's No.1 sniper. LVG's position is relatively dangerous in both simulations, but LVG is competing in PGL and has a huge opportunity to earn points.
Regarding BCG: If they crash out of Pulse III with a heavy defeat, there will be some risk, but they are most likely safe, with HLTV directly simulating their advancement.
On TYLOO: There is little margin for error. TYLOO also competed at PGL, and a poor performance would put them at risk.
Regarding FlyQuest: Because LVG is also right near the qualification line, Green Leaf is at high risk.
About 5star eSports: There may still be a lot of headroom left in the offline win cap.
Regarding The MongolZ: It will slightly depend on whether the LAN participant list changes, but with such a high prize pool, the situation could only become even more favorable for them
Regarding LVG: Major qualification is now even more marginal. They need a strong performance in Europe, but HyperX looks quite crowded. The HyperX mentioned above that NaVi may participate in has numerous lesser-known teams that can be used as point farms, but losing to lesser-known teams will cost a lot of points.
Americas:
The two simulations for the Americas region are about the same, because the Americas region is relatively stable. Finn's simulation is still from a week ago, and there basically won't be much change.
Tonight FaZe will face NAVI Junior in the Rome Cup. If they win, their points will surpass the NAVI main team, and they will directly advance to the knockout stage and earn points.